If the 2025 NBA Playoffs have taught us anything so far, it’s this: no lead is safe. Not even close. According to ESPN Analytics, there have already been four separate instances in the second round alone where a team had a 98% chance to win—and still lost. 🤯 That’s not just rare; that’s historic. And it’s creating some of the wildest, most unpredictable playoff basketball we’ve seen in years.
Whether it’s collapsing under pressure, unbelievable clutch performances, or simply the magic of the postseason, teams are proving that games are never over until the final buzzer sounds. Fans are learning (and relearning) the hard way not to leave the arena early or even think about turning the TV off. In these playoffs, a 20-point lead feels about as safe as a two-point advantage with 10 seconds left.
The madness began early in the second round when the New York Knicks stormed back from a massive deficit against the Pacers, defying every odd to steal a critical win. Then, not even 48 hours later, the Minnesota Timberwolves were stunned after blowing a late lead to the Warriors, despite being in complete control for most of the night. Every time ESPN flashed the win probability graphic with 98% locked in, fans braced themselves for the unexpected—and more often than not, the upset happened.
So what’s driving this chaos? Part of it is the incredible shot-making ability across the league. Superstars like Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, and Steph Curry are capable of erasing double-digit deficits in just a few minutes. Another key factor: the defensive intensity ramps up late in games. Teams that seemed unstoppable early suddenly struggle to even get a good shot off when the pressure mounts. Turnovers, missed free throws, and momentum swings have become the new norm.
It’s also about mental toughness. In the playoffs, pressure doesn’t just build—it explodes. Teams that play free and aggressive with a lead often get tight once the comeback starts. Meanwhile, the team that’s behind plays loose, knowing they have nothing to lose. Those psychological shifts can turn a 98% win probability into a heartbreaking defeat before you can even refresh the ESPN app.
And let’s not forget the crowd factor. Playoff crowds are wild, and when a comeback begins, the energy in the building can feel like a tidal wave. Visiting teams often get overwhelmed, and even the most experienced squads aren’t immune.
Looking ahead, one thing is crystal clear: fans and players alike can’t take anything for granted. A 15-point lead? It can disappear in three possessions. Up 10 with two minutes left? Better tighten up. Because in these 2025 playoffs, 98% is not 100%—and until the final horn, anything can happen.
We’re witnessing something special this postseason: a true testament to how competitive and thrilling NBA basketball has become. Buckle up, because if this trend continues, the craziest moments are still ahead. 🏀🔥
