The NBA Draft Lottery is one of the most exciting events of the year, drawing widespread attention for its ability to reshape the future of NBA franchises. For teams on the outside looking in at the playoffs, the lottery is their best shot at turning their fortunes around. But how exactly do the odds work? And which teams are involved in this year’s draft lottery?
The Basics of the NBA Draft Lottery
The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order in which non-playoff teams will select players in the upcoming draft. It’s a system designed to give the teams with the worst records the best chance of landing the top picks. This is crucial because it allows struggling teams to get a potential franchise-altering player, helping them rebuild or make a significant leap in their pursuit of long-term success.
The Lottery Odds
The NBA has implemented a weighted lottery system that gives the three teams with the worst records equal chances at the top pick. Since 2019, the league has flattened the odds, meaning that the three worst teams each have a 14% chance of securing the No. 1 pick. This system was designed to reduce tanking and make the lottery process more fair, giving teams outside of the bottom three a better shot at rising up.
Here’s how the odds break down:
- Teams with the worst records (1st, 2nd, and 3rd worst) — 14% chance each: These teams have the highest chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
- 4th worst team — 12.5% chance: The odds for the team with the 4th worst record are lower than the top three but still decent.
- 5th worst team — 10.5% chance: Teams in this position will have progressively lower chances to jump into the top spots.
From there, the percentages continue to decrease, with the 14th worst team (which has the best record among the non-playoff teams) having just a 0.5% chance at No. 1.
Teams Involved in the Lottery
Now, let’s take a look at the teams that are involved in the lottery this season. These teams either missed the playoffs or finished the regular season with a losing record. The franchise that finishes with the worst record will enter the lottery with the highest odds of getting the No. 1 pick, followed by the second and third worst teams, and so on.
1. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are no stranger to the bottom of the standings, but their youth movement centered around Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren has given them hope for the future. With the worst record in the league this season, they will have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, which could give them the chance to add another top-tier prospect to their growing roster.
2. Washington Wizards
In full rebuild mode after trading away Bradley Beal, the Wizards have a 14% chance of securing the No. 1 pick. They could use this pick to add a dynamic guard or forward to pair with their young talent.
3. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs, a team historically known for their strong player development, are currently near the bottom of the standings. With a 14% chance at the top pick, they are in prime position to add a star to grow alongside their young core.
4. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have shown flashes of potential but have struggled with consistency. They’ll enter the lottery with a 12.5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, which could be a game-changer for their future.
5. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland finds itself in an intriguing situation. With Damian Lillard on the roster and a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick, they could either use the pick to build for the future or look to make a trade to help their superstar win now.
6. Houston Rockets
The Rockets, led by young talents like Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr., have another shot at the lottery. With an 8.5% chance at No. 1, they’ll be hoping to land a future star to accelerate their rebuild.
Conclusion
The NBA Draft Lottery is a pivotal moment for the teams involved. While the lottery odds may seem small for some, the potential rewards are huge. Whether it’s adding a franchise-changing talent or positioning themselves for future success, these teams are all hoping that the ping-pong balls bounce in their favor.
